卢迪明博客‎ > ‎

指点江山

China's 60th Birthday: The Road to Prosperity

发布者:Diming Lu,发布时间:2009年9月23日 上午7:31

By David Shambaugh Monday, Sep. 28, 2009
 

Sixty years ago Mao Zedong stood before a sea of people atop Tiananmen Gate proclaiming, in his high-pitched Hunan dialect, the founding of the People's Republic of China and that the "Chinese people have stood up!" The moment was marked with pride and hope. The communists' victory had vanquished the Nationalist regime, withstood the vicious onslaught of the Japanese invasion and overturned the century of foreign encroachment on China's territory. Moreover, Mao and the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) came to power without significant external support — theirs was largely a homegrown revolution. (See pictures of the making of modern China.)

Mao brought a vision for China that has resonated from the 19th century Qing dynasty reformers to this day: to regain China's fu qiang (wealth and power), dignity, international respect and territorial integrity. In this regard, Mao and the CCP positioned themselves squarely with a deep yearning among Chinese — thus earning their loyalty and the party's legitimacy. His successors have not wavered from this singular vision and mission. (Read "Where China Goes Next.")

Tragically, Mao's belief in restoring China's greatness and achieving modernity was inextricably intertwined with his ideological desire to transform China into a socialist and revolutionary society. Mao's social engineering continually convulsed China in unrelenting political campaigns. These movements disrupted productivity and caused horrific loss of life. Yet, despite the chaos, the People's Republic embarked on industrialization and stood up. By many measures, 60 years on, China has achieved significant progress toward becoming a major and global power. Mao may recognize it, but he would not be wholly happy with it.

As the People's Republic of China commemorates its 60th anniversary, it seemingly has much to celebrate. China is the world's most populous and industrious nation, is the world's third largest economy and trading nation, has become a global innovator in science and technology, and is building a world-class university system. It has an increasingly modern military and commands diplomatic respect. It is at peace with its neighbors and all major powers. Its hybrid model of quasi-state capitalism and semidemocratic authoritarianism — sometimes dubbed the "Beijing Consensus" — has attracted attention across the developing world.

This growing soft power of China was strengthened by the 2008 Olympics extravaganza, and the Shanghai Expo next year will similarly dazzle. The 60th anniversary celebration in Beijing on Oct. 1 will impress, if not frighten, the world with an arresting display of military hardware and goose-stepping soldiers. Less visible is the fact that China is the first major economy to recover from the global recession and, indeed, is leading the world out of it. (Read "Mission Accomplished. Now What?")

China is on a roll, particularly when viewed over time. Visiting or living in China every year over the past three decades, I have had the personal opportunity to witness dramatic transformations. When I first went to China in 1979, vestiges of the Cultural Revolution were still evident: revolutionary slogans painted on walls and pockmarks on university buildings from bullets and howitzer shells shot by dueling Red Guards. Camouflaged, but just as evident, were the personal scars borne by intellectuals and officials whom I met at the time. I heard stories of beatings and humiliations, confiscations of personal possessions and loss of living quarters, and forced hard labor.

I then witnessed the dramatic blossoming of personal freedoms and economic growth in the 1980s, punctuated by periodic countercampaigns launched by neo-Maoists in the leadership. One could literally feel and see Chinese society come alive after its long Maoist trauma, only to have people quickly recoil when the conservatives in the leadership reasserted themselves. This seesaw pattern persisted throughout the decade, culminating in the dramatic Tiananmen demonstrations and their suppression in June 1989.

In the early 1990s, I again experienced China as a society traumatized, this time by the aftermath of Tiananmen. But by mid-decade Deng Xiaoping had reignited domestic economic reforms and China had normalized its place in the world after its post-Tiananmen isolation. Politics, however, remained frozen and the heavy hand of the state remained evident. Only during the present decade, in the waning years of Jiang Zemin's rule and under Hu Jintao, has the Communist Party begun to experiment with very limited political reforms. My discussions with those party officials involved with crafting the "democratic" reforms makes clear that there are strict boundaries to how far they will proceed.

Thus, when considering the totality of six decades, the record of the PRC is decidedly mixed. While its achievements have been momentous, so are the contrasts and contradictions exposed by those very same achievements. In many sectors, each reform breeds new problems and challenges. China has come a long way, but it still has a long way to go.

 

The question for China's leaders was never whether to modernize — but how. During the Maoist era a variety of economic models were experimented with, each of which achieving some modicum of growth. Yet all of them left China lagging far behind the West and East Asia. The costs of some initiatives, like the Great Leap Forward from 1958 to 1960, were catastrophic in human and environmental terms. It was not until Deng and Chen Yun, another reform-minded Politburo member, returned to power in 1978 from internal exile that the economic course was changed. (See pictures of a new look at old Shanghai.)

Three decades later, the world witnesses the extraordinary results. China is now the world's third largest economy, after the U.S. and Japan, and recently surpassed Germany as the largest exporting nation. Its GNP is on course to overtake Japan's by 2010 and perhaps that of the U.S. by 2020. (Read "Why the China-U.S. Trade Dispute Is Heating Up.")

Much of this dynamic growth has been export-driven, benefiting the low- and medium-technology sectors of the economy. But China is beginning to move up the technological ladder and is becoming more innovative in certain sectors such as electronics and biotechnology. The country has become a manufacturing superpower and the workshop of the world, producing two-thirds of all photocopiers, microwaves and shoes; 60% of cell phones; 55% of DVDs; over half of all digital cameras; 30% of personal computers; and 75% of children's toys, plus a wide variety of other goods.

As a result of its economic boom, China has amassed a staggering $2 trillion in foreign exchange — the largest reserves in the world — and is beginning to invest significant amounts abroad. Today, 37 Chinese multinational corporations rank among FORTUNE's top 500 global companies, up from just six a decade ago, while 450 out of the FORTUNE 500 American companies have production lines and a business presence in China. China has become the world's largest recipient of foreign direct investment. To fuel its economic boom, China's voracious and insatiable appetite for raw materials has led it to absorb large amounts of global commodities. China now consumes 16% of global energy resources and is the world's third largest consumer of oil. (Read "Can China Save the World's Economy?")

But the economic explosion has come at a high environmental cost. China's air and water are among the most polluted on earth and it is the leading emitter of greenhouse gases. The environmental nightmare is hurting public health. Malignant cancer now accounts for 28.5% of deaths while respiratory diseases account for 13.1%, according to the 2008 China Statistical Yearbook. China's growth has been dynamic, but it is also double-edged.

Reinventing a Nation

Mao spent his lifetime trying to transform Chinese society in his utopian, socialist and revolutionary vision. He tried to create a "new socialist man" and an equitable society. His regime succeeded in providing the world's largest population with food to eat, housing and basic services. Social vices were eliminated, literacy was expanded, life expectancy increased and infant mortality decreased. These were no small achievements. But Mao's efforts to impose socialism had a deadening effect on urban and rural society alike, as political movements repeatedly harassed different groups of people.

By the time Deng and his compatriots came to power in 1978, China was traumatized, tired and alienated by 30 years of Maoist experiments and totalitarian controls. Deng's wisdom was to recognize that the state needed to retreat from society and the economy if the creative and entrepreneurial spirits of ordinary Chinese were to be unleashed.

Three decades later, Chinese society has fully blossomed. Chinese today experience a wide variety of personal freedoms in daily life that they and their ancestors had never known. Chinese state and society have also reconnected with the past, emphasizing Confucian and Buddhist values. More than 200 million people have been lifted out of poverty and the members of a growing middle class with disposable income travel abroad, invest in the stock market, dine out and decorate their stylish apartments with furniture purchased from stores like Ikea. Access to education has become far more widespread. Some 21 million students attend university today, while an estimated 300,000 study abroad every year. Approximately 206 million Chinese children attend primary and secondary schools. Basic literacy is almost universal in China today, while it was roughly 20% in 1949. Still, China remains a poor country by global standards: some 207 million people still live below World Bank poverty levels on less than $1.25 per day.

With economic growth have come demographic shifts and life improvements. Live expectancy has shot up while infant mortality has plummeted. In 1949 more than 90% of the population lived in rural areas; given the expansion of urban areas, slightly more than half (721 million) do today, according to official statistics. But China's increasing urbanization and spreading industrialization have resulted in a considerable loss of arable land and forcible evictions, sparking much resentment against local officials.

Chinese intellectual life has also improved, although over time this remains one of the real dark spots of Chinese communist rule. For six decades intellectuals have been persecuted, harassed and forced to conform and create within various boundaries set by the state. They continually probe the boundaries — until the state pushes back. Despite continuing controls, public and private discourse in China has never been so free. The blogosphere and Internet are alive with unbridled discussion — unless and until it crosses the state censor's invisible hand. (Read "Avoiding Censors, Chinese Authors Go Online.")

While China has made much progress, it still has many blemishes. Treatment of ethnic minorities — particularly Tibetans and Uighurs — is the Achilles' heel of the regime, as violent riots last year and in recent months have clearly demonstrated. Crime and corruption remain serious problems, while cities struggle to provide basic services to the huge "floating population" of 100 million or so migrants. Income disparities (as measured by the Gini coefficient) are now approaching the highest in the world. China has again become a stratified society — just what Mao sought to eliminate. Still, given the unprecedented scale and nature of China's socioeconomic change over the past 30 years, the country's relative stability is commendable.

Politics Not as Usual

At first glance, China's political system has not changed much since 1949. It is still a Leninist system, dominated by the CCP and an oligarchy of its self-selected leaders, which tolerates no opposition. The Party's powerful Organization Department oversees all major appointments in the country, and one must really be a party member to get ahead professionally. Party and government organs remain essentially as they were six decades ago, copied from the Soviet Union.

But while much of the structure and essential nature of the system remains largely the same, the substance and process of politics has changed quite a lot. The leadership and the 76 million party members are better educated and their recruitment and promotion is much more meritocratic. Competence is now rewarded. In the past, there existed only two exit paths from officialdom: purges and death. Now mandatory retirement is firmly implemented. Instead of being a totalitarian party dominated by a single leader, the CCP today is an authoritarian party with a collective leadership. The leaders themselves — at least those I have witnessed — are now remarkably self-assured and relatively sophisticated. Marxist-Leninist ideology plays little, if any, role in their decision-making. The policy process is more consultative, although still lacking in transparency. Much emphasis is put on governance and officials at all levels undergo required training in public administration.

On the whole, the Communist Party has proven itself to be remarkably adaptable and open to borrowing elements from different countries and political systems. As a result it is becoming a hybrid party with elements of East Asian neo-authoritarianism, Latin American corporatism and European social democracy all grafted to Confucianist-Leninist roots. The uprising in Tiananmen and across China in 1989 and the subsequent collapse of communist systems in Europe and the Soviet Union were instructive experiences for the CCP. Many lessons were drawn, but the principal one was to remain flexible and adaptable, not dogmatic and rigid. (Read "Beijing Clamps Down After Call for Democracy.")

Will the Party's adaptability and the nation's continuing economic growth be sufficient to sustain it in power indefinitely? Perhaps. The CCP's sustenance to date has certainly surprised many leading China watchers. But, going forward, the major challenge to the Party will likely be its ability to deliver adequate "public goods" to the population: health care, education, environmental protection and other social services. Providing stability and ever increasing personal wealth will not be enough to guarantee the Party indefinite legitimacy — it must continuously improve the quality of life of its citizens. This is China's new revolution: the revolution of rising expectations.

Taking On the World

Any consideration of China's transformation since 1949 must recognize the dramatic improvement in China's global posture. Sixty years ago the new People's Republic was cut off from the world, having diplomatic recognition only from a relatively small number of nations. It was excluded from the U.N. It soon became embroiled in the Korean War and the Cold War, which brought further isolation. Despite some marginal trade with Western Europe following the 1954 Geneva Conference on Indochina, China was cut off from international trade, finance and aid. As a result, its economy stagnated.

Six decades later, China has fully embraced globalization at home and has burst onto the world's stage in a largely positive fashion. It now has both interests and a presence in parts of the world completely new to China — such as Latin America and the Middle East — and enjoys rising international prestige. Beijing has generally managed its relations well with the major world powers: the U.S., Russia and the E.U. It has transformed its regional diplomacy in Asia, reasserted a role in Africa and become much more deeply engaged with international organizations and across a range of global-governance issues. China used to eschew multilateralism, distrusting it as some kind of (Western) conspiracy. While Beijing remains a selective multilateralist globally — engaging on some issues and not others — the broad trend has been positive and in the direction of deeper contributions to the world community.

China is also more proactive on global security issues ("hot spots" as Chinese analysts like to describe them). When natural disasters now strike, such as the South and Southeast Asian tsunami in 2004 and the Pakistan earthquake the following year, China is there to provide physical and financial assistance. China now has over 2,100 peacekeeping personnel deployed in about a dozen nations worldwide — more than any other member of the U.N. Security Council. This is one tangible expression of China's strong commitment to the U.N. Today, indeed, the PRC may be the greatest advocate of the U.N. among the major powers. (Read "China Takes on the World.")

In the field of arms control, China used to be a serious proliferator of missiles and missile components, and a significant seller of conventional arms. But, over time, China has signed or ratified the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty and the Biological and Conventional Weapons Convention, has joined the Nuclear Suppliers Group and has essentially adhered to the Missile Technology Control Regime (although it is not a member). This is not the China that the world used to know: a "revisionist" destabilizing power that sought to overturn the international order. Today, the People's Republic of China is deeply involved across the globe and is increasingly an upholder of, and contributor to, the existing international order. China has been a considerable beneficiary of the post – Cold War order, which has allowed Beijing to establish a presence in regions and international institutions that was not previously possible.

China's strategic posture is also changing. Its military modernization program has made giant strides in recent years — and they will be on display in the massive military parade in central Beijing on Oct. 1. In many categories China's military is the best in Asia and in some sectors is approaching NATO standards. The People's Liberation Army still has no global strike capacity, however, other than its intercontinental ballistic missiles and cyberwarfare capabilities.

Still, many countries worry about China's rise and global expansion, even though it has, to date, been outwardly peaceful. Public opinion polls in Europe and the U.S. regularly reflect a negative image of China, while concerns over economic competition and job losses are growing in Europe, Africa and Latin America. Substantial strains remain in Beijing's ties with three of China's most important neighbors: Australia, India and Japan. Even relations with Russia, which have achieved historic highs since the collapse of the Soviet Union, have run into obstacles. This is unsurprising. As Beijing expands its influence and begins to flex its new muscle on the world stage, it's to be expected that China will engender occasional discord with other nations. (Read "The China-India Rivalry: Watching the Border.")

Future Shock?

Some historians of China think they see the telltale signs of dynastic decline: government corruption, social discontent (especially in the countryside), autocratic rulers and a militarizing state. Some contemporary China experts also voice their doubts — proclaiming the regime fragile and the political system ossified — while economists question how long the dynamic growth can continue.

While the system and country have weaknesses and challenges, the Sinological landscape is littered with its naysayers and critics. The People's Republic of China has endured for six decades and has overcome a wide variety of serious domestic crises, border wars and international isolation. Its strengths and adaptability have repeatedly been underestimated by outside observers. One thing is certain: China will remain a country of complexity and contradictions — which will keep China watchers and Chinese alike guessing about its future indefinitely.

Shambaugh is professor and director of the China Policy Program at George Washington University in Washington, D.C., nonresident senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, and currently a visiting scholar at the China Academy of Social Sciences in Beijing. His latest book is China's Communist Party: Atrophy and Adaptation

 

佛陈大桥上演美国大片大巴欲火滑行果敢巡警驱车阻截

发布者:Diming Lu,发布时间:2009年9月13日 下午6:58   [ 更新时间:2009年9月13日 下午7:16 ]

视频
 
 


 消防员正在扑灭余火。/记者崔景印摄

一辆大巴在佛陈大桥桥顶起火,并向桥下人车密集的路段滑行——

 

 

  记者李锋报道:昨天傍晚,一辆由番禺市桥开往佛山汽车站的大巴,行至佛陈大桥桥中间时,车尾的引擎突然冒烟起火。在司机的及时处置下,车上37名乘客得以安全下车。不过,由于火势迅猛,大巴向桥下滑行。

  期间,一名巡警驾警车迎面撞向大巴试图堵截。尽管没有成功,但他的一撞一堵,让其他民警在疏导魁奇路与南海大道交界路口的过往车辆时,赢得了宝贵的三分钟时间。这辆“火车”从桥顶冲下时,没有伤及行人及车辆。

.


C2000网友云中浪客13日18:05分摄

  昨晚6时10分,记者赶到现场时,大巴已停在往桂城方向的南海大道边上的花基上,消防员已将火扑灭。大巴的车厢、车顶、车窗均被烧空,整辆车已成一堆废铁。车头处标示着“佛汽集团”。

  在大桥附近一家工厂工作的李先生用手机拍摄事发的全过程。据他提供的视频显示,起初大巴停在桥顶并没有移动,不过车已被大火包围,浓烟冲天像蘑菇云,接着车慢慢往桥下滑行。李先生当时边追着车边拍摄。车在冒烟时,乘客拿着行李往桥下边跑边尖叫。随后,车慢慢动了。“刚开始的滑行速度很慢,后来越来越快,时速有40公里。”他说,大巴就像一条火龙在移动,他当时担心车会爆炸。


工作人员将受损警车拖离现场。/记者崔景印摄

  记者从现场民警处获知,这辆大巴是昨天下午5时20分从番禺市桥汽车站开出,车上有37名乘客。事故中没有乘客受伤。据现场民警介绍,起火的大巴从桥顶一直滑行至魁奇路与南海大道交界处的花基才停下,至少有1公里。记者从路口走到桥顶,路面均是碎玻璃。目击者称,事发时,起火的大巴像一条“火龙”冲下来。

  一名姓陈的女乘客向记者描述,当时,车刚好行到佛陈大桥的桥顶,坐在后排的乘客突然喊“着火了”,接着车厢内充满了浓烟。这时,司机马上停车打开车门,让乘客下车。“我们很感谢司机!”陈女士说,这名司机停车后马上提着灭火器,打开车尾引擎盖灭火。不过,火势越来越大,他马上报了警。6时30分左右,一辆广州二汽的大巴将乘客接走。

  在接近桥顶的50米处,往佛山方向的车道停着一辆警车,车牌为“粤E0059警”,车头的引擎盖已凸起来。有乘客称,起初着火的大巴是不动的,后来就慢慢向下滑行。这时,一名民警开着警车从桥下冲上来,迎面撞上滑行的大巴。“这名警察真勇敢,我们当时还担心爆炸!”多名目击者称,大巴撞上警车后停了下来,这时车上的民警也跳了下来。

  对话卢绍毅

  “那一刻只想着拦住它”

  卢绍毅(以下简称“卢”) 今年29岁,是禅城公安分局巡警二大队二中队的民警,至今从警7年,汕头人,他有一个9个月大的女儿。昨日17时55分左右,他开着车牌为“粤E0059警”的警车,迎面撞击已变成“火车”的大巴,试图堵截它继续滑行,以免伤及围观群众及过往车辆。

  昨晚8时,经过简单救治后,他走出市一医院,依然觉得头有点晕,医生诊断是“轻微脑震荡”。

  记者:现在身体怎么样?

  卢:头有点晕,可能是撞击大巴那一瞬间,头部撞到方向盘,医生诊断是轻微脑震荡。

  记者:当时现场情况是什么样?

  卢 :当时车停在桥顶中间位置,司机正在灭火,乘客基本下来了。但是火势越来越大,可能是刹车装置被烧坏了,失控,车慢慢往下滑行。见到情况不对,我马上开着警车从魁奇路与南海大道交界的路口,逆行上桥,想着用警车截住大巴,不让它继续滑行。

  记者:为什么想到用警车去截呢?

  卢:现场很多群众围观,下面的路口正值下班高峰,也是车来车往的,如果任其冲下去,后果肯定不堪设想。而且,当时大巴也只是慢慢在动,如果用警车顶住大巴,可能行,至少滑行的速度会减慢。那样的话,在路口指挥的兄弟就有时间去控制住路口四边的车辆。

  记者:撞击一辆滑行的“火车”,你没有想到爆炸或其他危险吗?

  卢:当时根本没想那么多,就是看看能不能顶住它,其他就没多想了!撞上去之后,城巴停了大概1分多钟,我马上从警车里跳出来。不过,大巴又把警车推开了,推到另一个车道上,继续向下滑行,而且速度越来越快,我在后面跑步追,都没有追上。

Space Shuttle Endeavour Launch奋力号航天飞机发射升空

发布者:Diming Lu,发布时间:2009年7月16日 下午8:23

Space Shuttle Endeavour Launch奋力号航天飞机发射升空

浅谈在国际金融危机下我国企业及其民主管理的创新与发展

发布者:Diming Lu,发布时间:2009年7月14日 下午5:50

浅谈在国际金融危机下我国企业民主管理的创新与发展

佛山旧貌:历史的见证——庆祝建国60周年献礼,我爱佛山

发布者:Diming Lu,发布时间:2009年6月20日 上午6:52   [ 更新时间:2009年6月20日 上午6:54 ]

        从30多年前的落后小城,佛山深化改革,锐意创新,已经发展成为广东省第三大城市。佛山市顺德区美的、科龙等家电企业全国赫赫有名,南海区民营企业百花齐放欣欣向荣,商业繁荣鼎盛。濒临广州组成广佛都市圈,发展前景更可谓无可限量。未来5年的广佛同城化战略,将会给佛山带来更多的机遇和挑战。作为一名在佛山长大的孩子,我衷心祝愿佛山明天更好。
        回顾过去,展望未来,佛山旧貌不再,历史犹在,新颜更显无穷生命力。接下来,让我们共同见证佛山的发展,体会佛山的深厚文化底蕴吧!

佛山旧貌

图片来自互联网

我国经济总量2050年居世界首位

发布者:Diming Lu,发布时间:2009年6月16日 上午12:07   [ 更新时间:2009年6月16日 上午12:14 ]

        中国科学院10日在京发布《创新2050:科技革命与中国的未来》系列报告,为我国描绘了面向2050年科技发展路线图。2050年空间科技发展路线图明确提出,2030年前后,中国实现载人登月,建立月球基地,2050年前后,载人飞行从月球基地飞向更远的行星,具备载人登火星能力。科技发展路线图预测,2050年,中国经济总量将达到世界首位,人均GDP达到中等发达国家水平。中国目前的经济总量排在美国和日本之后,位居世界第三。中科院的路线图描绘了这样一幅愿景:2050年中国将成为政治、物质、社会、精神、生态五大文明高度发达且高度开放的国家。

 
我国经济总量2050年居世界首位

网络上流传的中国航母想象图。路线图预测,到2050年,中国海洋能力将拓展到全球公海。

我国经济总量2050年居世界首位

我国研制的月球探测车。路线图提出,2030年前后,我国将实现载人登月,并建立月球基地。

我国经济总量2050年居世界首位

新能源越来越受到重视。路线图提出,2035年前后,我国将初步形成以风能等为主的新型电力系统。

我国经济总量2050年居世界首位

我国火星探测卫星想象图。路线图称,2020年前后,我国设计的探测器将可达火星。
 
 
核心提示

  中国科学院日前在京发布《创新2050:科技革命与中国的未来》系列报告,为我国描绘了面向2050年科技发展路线图。路线图认为,在今后的10年至20年,很有可能发生一场以绿色、智能和可持续为特征的新的科技革命和产业革命。而这次全球性金融危机导致世界经济格局大调整,将加快新科技革命的到来。

  300多位科学家参与

  涉及18个重要领域

  据介绍,报告绘制了我国未来50年在能源、人口健康、空间与海洋、信息、国家与公共安全等18个重要领域的科技发展路线图。

  路线图中涉及的科技问题,均是《国家中长期科学和技术发展规划纲要》尚未部署或部署力度不够的战略性问题。报告凝聚了中科院300余位专家历时一年多的心血,按照2020年、2030年和2050年三个阶段,提出了“以科技创新为支撑的八大经济社会基础和战略体系”的整体构想,即可持续能源与资源体系、无所不在的信息网络体系、国家与公共安全体系等。

  有关专家将在此基础上开展持续深入研究,并适时发布研究成果,每5年修订一次相关领域科技发展路线图。

  2030年载人登月

  2050年载人登火星

  公布的中国科技发展路线图,其中2050年空间科技发展路线图明确提出,2030年前后,中国实现载人登月,建立月球基地,2050年前后,载人飞行从月球基地飞向更远的行星,具备载人登火星能力。

  这份最新出炉的中国2050年空间科技发展路线图称,空天科学与深空探测能力方面,2020年前后,探测器可达火星,2030年前后,深空探测器实现高效星际航行和高精度自主导航,可探测木星等火星以外的行星,2050年前后,深空探测器飞出太阳系进入宇宙空间。空天技术能力在载人航天方面,载人登月前,在2020年前后,突破人在近地轨道空间站长期生存保障技术,建立长期有人逗留的空间站。

  经济总量

  2050年居世界首位

  发展路线图预测,2050年,中国经济总量将达到世界首位。

  中国目前的经济总量排在美国和日本之后,位居世界第三。此前,美国投资专家罗杰斯曾预言,中国有可能在2025年前超越美国,成为世界第一大经济体。美国高盛公司首席经济师奥尼尔则称,中国有可能在2027年前挑战美国的老大地位。

  中科院的路线图描绘了这样一幅愿景:2050年中国将进入世界中等发达国家行列,成为政治、物质、社会、精神、生态五大文明高度发达且高度开放的国家。

  2050年的中国,将是一个政治文明高度发达的国家,社会主义民主和法制高度完善,国家统一,民族团结,社会稳定。

  2050年的中国,将是一个物质文明高度发达的国家,经济总量达到世界首位,人均GDP达到中等发达国家水平,全体人民过上富足安康的生活。

  海洋能力

  2050年拓展到全球公海

  作为发展路线图中22个战略性科技问题之一,中国海洋能力拓展计划确定三阶段目标,2020年前,逐步拓展到全部领海和经济专属区;2030年前后,逐步拓展到西太平洋和印度洋;2050年前后,拓展到全球公海。

  中科院指出,中国在海洋安全领域,核心是发展健全的海洋环境及水下信息获取与传输能力,海洋灾害性气候预警与突发事件监测能力,先进的海洋平台系统与安全运载能力,保障中国领域、海洋经济专属区的防卫能力和海洋战略运输通道的安全进出能力。

1-6 of 6